Hagos S, Hailemariam D, WoldeHanna T, Lindtjørn B (2017) Spatial heterogeneity and risk factors for stunting among children under age five in Ethiopia: A Bayesian geo-statistical model. PLOS ONE 12(2): e0170785. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170785
Background Understanding the spatial distribution of stunting and underlying factors operating at meso-scale is of paramount importance for intervention designing and implementations. Yet, little is known about the spatial distribution of stunting and some discrepancies are documented on the relative importance of reported risk factors. Therefore, the present study aims at exploring the spatial distribution of stunting at meso- (district) scale, and evaluates the effect of spatial dependency on the identification of risk factors and their relative contribution to the occurrence of stunting and severe stunting in a rural area of Ethiopia.
Methods A community based cross sectional study was conducted to measure the occurrence of stunting and severe stunting among children aged 0–59 months. Additionally, we collected relevant information on anthropometric measures, dietary habits, parent and child-related demographic and socio-economic status. Latitude and longitude of surveyed households were also recorded. Local Anselin Moran’s I was calculated to investigate the spatial variation of stunting prevalence and identify potential local pockets (hotspots) of high prevalence. Finally, we employed a Bayesian geo-statistical model, which accounted for spatial dependency structure in the data, to identify potential risk factors for stunting in the study area.
Results Overall, the prevalence of stunting and severe stunting in the district was 43.7% [95%CI: 40.9, 46.4] and 21.3% [95%CI: 19.5, 23.3] respectively. We identified statistically significant clusters of high prevalence of stunting (hotspots) in the eastern part of the district and clusters of low prevalence (cold spots) in the western. We found out that the inclusion of spatial structure of the data into the Bayesian model has shown to improve the fit for stunting model. The Bayesian geo-statistical model indicated that the risk of stunting increased as the child’s age increased (OR 4.74; 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]:3.35–6.58) and among boys (OR 1.28; 95%BCI; 1.12–1.45). However, maternal education and household food security were found to be protective against stunting and severe stunting.
Conclusion Stunting prevalence may vary across space at different scale. For this, it’s important that nutrition studies and, more importantly, control interventions take into account this spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of nutritional deficits and their underlying associated factors. The findings of this study also indicated that interventions integrating household food insecurity in nutrition programs in the district might help to avert the burden of stunting.
We have recently updated the web page for the South Ethiopia Network of Universities in Public Health (SENUPH); please see https://senuph.b.uib.no .
The website includes information about the program, and also about the research work done by each of the PhD students.
On Friday, January 27, Fekadu Massebo defended his PhD thesis at the University of Bergen. This was a good defence with a thorough scientific discussion. For the first time at the University of Bergen, the first and second opponents were African. This is a testimony to the emerging strength of African scientists.
The picture shows the candidate after the defence, the opponents, and the supervisors. From left: Professor Sven Gudmund Hinderaker (Acting Dean), Fekadu Massebo, Dr Silas Majambere (First opponent), Professor Tehmina Mustafa from UiB, Professor Bernt Lindtjørn (supervisor), Dr Tarekegn Abeku (Second opponent) and Ass Professor Meshesha Balkew (supervisor) from Addis Ababa University.
Kenea O, Balkew M, Tekie H, Gebre-Michael T, Deressa W, Loha E, Lindtjørn B, Overgaard HJ: Comparison of two adult mosquito sampling methods with human landing catches in south-central Ethiopia. Malaria Journal 2017, 16.
Background The human landing catch (HLC) is the standard reference method for measuring human exposure to mosquito bites. However, HLC is labour-intensive, exposes collectors to infectious mosquito bites and is subjected to collector bias. These necessitate local calibration and application of alternative methods. This study was undertaken to determine the relative sampling efficiency (RSE) of light traps with or without yeast-produced carbon dioxide bait vs. HLC in south-central Ethiopia.
Methods The experiment was conducted for 39 nights in a 3 × 3 Latin square randomized design with Anopheles arabiensis as the target species in the period between July and November 2014 in Edo Kontola village, south-central Ethiopia. Center for Disease Control and Prevention light trap catches (LTC) and yeast-generated carbon dioxide-baited light trap catches (CB-LTC) were each evaluated against HLC. The total nightly mosquito catches for each Anopheles species in either method was compared with HLC by Pearson correlation and simple linear regression analysis on log-transformed [log10(x + 1)] values. To test if the RSE of each alternative method was affected by mosquito density, the ratio of the number of mosquitoes in each method to the number of mosquitoes in HLC was plotted against the average mosquito abundance.
Results Overall, 7606 Anopheles females were collected by the three sampling methods. Among these 5228 (68.7%) were Anopheles ziemanni, 1153 (15.2%) An. arabiensis, 883 (11.6%) Anopheles funestus s.l., and 342 (4.5%) Anopheles pharoensis. HLC yielded 3392 (44.6%), CB-LTC 2150 (28.3%), and LTC 2064 (27.1%) Anopheles females. The RSEs of LTC and HLC for An. arabiensis were significantly correlated (p < 0.001) and density independent (p = 0.65). However, for outdoor collection of the same species, RSEs of LTC and CB-LTC were density dependent (p < 0.001). It was estimated that on average, indoor LTC and CB-LTC each caught 0.35 and 0.44 times that of indoor HLC for An. arabiensis respectively.
Conclusions Results showed that HLC was the most efficient method for sampling An. arabiensis. LTC can be used for large-scale indoor An. arabiensis surveillance and monitoring when it is difficult to use HLC. CB-LTC does not substantially improve sampling of this major vector compared to LTC in this setting.
Lindtjørn B, Mitiku D, Zidda Z, Yaya Y (2017) Reducing Maternal Deaths in Ethiopia: Results of an Intervention Programme in Southwest Ethiopia. PLoS ONE 12(1): e0169304. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0169304
Background In a large population in Southwest Ethiopia (population 700,000), we carried out a complex set of interventions with the aim of reducing maternal mortality. This study evaluated the effects of several coordinated interventions to help improve effective coverage and reduce maternal deaths. Together with the Ministry of Health in Ethiopia, we designed a project to strengthen the health-care system. A particular emphasis was given to upgrade existing institutions so that they could carry out Basic (BEmOC) and Comprehensive Emergency Obstetric Care (CEmOC). Health institutions were upgraded by training non-clinical physicians and midwives by providing the institutions with essential and basic equipment, and by regular monitoring and supervision by staff competent in emergency obstetric work.
Results In this implementation study, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was the primary outcome. The study was carried out from 2010 to 2013 in three districts, and we registered 38,312 births. The MMR declined by 64% during the intervention period from 477 to 219 deaths per 100,000 live births (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24–0.88). The decline in MMR was higher for the districts with CEmOC, while the mean number of antenatal visits for each woman was 2.6 (Inter Quartile Range 2–4). The percentage of pregnant women who attended four or more antenatal controls increased by 20%, with the number of women who delivered at home declining by 10.5% (P<0.001). Similarly, the number of deliveries at health posts, health centres and hospitals increased, and we observed a decline in the use of traditional birth attendants. Households living near to all-weather roads had lower maternal mortality rates (MMR 220) compared with households without roads (MMR 598; OR 2.72 (95% CI 1.61–4.61)).
Conclusions Our results show that it is possible to achieve substantial reductions in maternal mortality rates over a short period of time if the effective coverage of well-known interventions is implemented.
Impact of combining Indoor Residual Spraying and Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets on Anopheles arabiensis in Ethiopia: Preliminary findings of a randomized controlled trial
Oljira Kenea, Meshesha Balkew, Habte Tekie, Teshome Gebre-Michael, Wakgari Deressa, Eskindir Loha, Hans J. Overgaard, Bernt Lindtjørn
The current malaria vector control interventions, indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been used in combination in sub-Saharan Africa with inconclusive evidence that the combined intervention is more effective than either IRS or LLINs alone. In Ethiopia, both interventions target Anopheles arabiensis, the sole primary malaria vector. This study compared the impact of combining IRS and LLINs with either intervention alone in south-central Ethiopia. Villages were randomly allocated to four study arms: IRS + LLIN, IRS, LLIN, and control. LLINs (PermaNet 2.0) were provided free of charge. IRS with propoxur was applied before the main malaria transmission season in 2014 and 2015. Adult mosquitoes were collected in randomly selected villages in each arm using CDC light trap catch (LTC) set close to a sleeping person, pyrethrum spray catch (PSC), and artificial pit shelter (PIT), for measuring host-seeking density (HSD), indoor resting density (IRD), and outdoor resting density (ORD). Human landing catch (HLC) was performed in selected villages to monitor An. arabiensis biting behaviors. Mean densities were compared using incidence rate ratio (IRR) calculated by negative binomial regression. A total of 1786 female anophelines of four species was collected of which An. arabiensis (n=574) was highest in the control arm (51.4%) followed by LLIN (31.5%), IRS (9.2%), and IRS+LLIN (7.9%). The mean HSD of An. arabiensis in the IRS+LLIN arm was similar to either the IRS arm (0.03 vs. 0.03/ house/LTC/night) or the LLIN arm (0.03 vs. 0.10/house/LTC/night, p=0.07) and so was the difference in IRD and ORD between the IRS and LLIN compared to the IRS arm. However, both IRD and ORD were higher in LLIN compared to IRS+LLIN (p < 0.001 for indoors). In all study arms, An. arabiensis was actively biting indoors and outdoors throughout the night with an early night biting peak before the local people retire to bed. IRS+LLIN compared to IRS had equal powerful impact on resting density of An. arabiensis, but LLIN had the least impact.
About ten years ago, the global health community was cautious about aiming at malaria eradication. The experiences from the 1960s and 1970s left some severe scars on such campaigns. Recently, the Gates Foundation has led the shift in approach and mobilised others to join efforts to end the disease. However, while malaria is preventable and treatable, eradication requires new tools (see figure).
A good vaccine would be highest on the agenda. Although vaccine trials show promising results, the vaccine efficacy is unfortunately too low to eradicate the disease.
Our recent study on the prevention of malaria in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia also shows some of the limited effects of insecticide-treated bed nets. In addition, we have observed that many of the mosquito bites take place at times when people do not use their bed nets. Our mosquito studies show that indoor residual spraying with insecticides can reduce the density of mosquitoes both inside the houses as well as outside the houses. Furthermore, a recent and unpublished study from south-west Ethiopia supporter previous findings that improving housing can reduce the entomological inoculation rates, which is a measure on how dangerous the mosquitoes are in transmitting malaria.
We, therefore, also support that several new tools are required. So, maybe the time is right to assess the combination of many interventions that would include active case finding, treatment, insecticide treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, improved housing, and other vector control measures; such as reducing the out-door density of malaria mosquitoes.
Kenea O, Balkew M, Tekie H, Gebre-Michael T, Deressa W, Loha E, Lindtjørn B, Overgaard HJ: Human-biting activities of Anopheles species in south-central Ethiopia. Parasites & vectors 2016, 9(1):1-12.
Background Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the key malaria vector control interventions in Ethiopia. The success of these interventions rely on their efficacy to repel or kill indoor feeding and resting mosquitoes. This study was undertaken to monitor human-biting patterns of Anopheles species in south-central Ethiopia.
Methods Human-biting patterns of anophelines were monitored for 40 nights in three houses using human landing catches (HLC) both indoors and outdoors between July and November 2014, in Edo Kontola village, south-central Ethiopia. This time coincides with the major malaria transmission season in Ethiopia, which is usually between September and November. Adult mosquitoes were collected from 19:00 to 06:00 h and identified to species. Comparisons of HLC data were done using incidence rate ratio (IRR) calculated by negative binomial regression. The nocturnal biting activities of each Anopheles species was expressed as mean number of mosquitoes landing per person per hour. To assess malaria infections in Anopheles mosquitoes the presence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax circumsporozoite proteins (CSP) were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).
Results Altogether 3,408 adult female anophelines were collected, 2,610 (76.6 %) outdoors and 798 (23.4 %) indoors. Anopheles zeimanni was the predominant species (66.5 %) followed by An. arabiensis (24.8 %), An. pharoensis (6.8 %) and An. funestus (s.l.) (1.8 %).
The overall mean anopheline density was 3.3 times higher outdoors than indoors (65.3 vs19.9/person/night, IRR: 3.3, 95 % CI: 1.1–5.1, P = 0.001). The mean density of An. zeimanni, An. pharoensis and An. funestus (s.l.) collected outdoors was significantly higher than indoors for each species (P < 0.05). However, the mean An. arabiensis density outdoors was similar to that indoors (11.8 vs 9.4/person/night, IRR: 1.3, 95 % CI: 0.8–1.9, P = 0.335). The mean hourly human-biting density of An. arabiensis was greater outdoors than indoors and peaked between 21:00 and 22:00 h. However, An. arabiensis parous population showed high indoor man biting activities during bedtimes (22:00 to 05:00 h) when the local people were indoor and potentially protected by IRS and LLINs. All mosquito samples tested for CSP antigen were found negative to malaria parasites.
Conclusions Results show much greater mosquito human-biting activities occurring outdoors than indoors and during early parts of the night, implying higher outdoor malaria transmission potential in the area. However, high bedtime (22:00 to 05:00 h) indoor biting activities of parous An. arabiensissuggest high potential intervention impact of IRS and LLINs on indoor malaria transmission.
New PhD: On September 16, Seifu Hagos Gebreyesus from Ethiopia, shall defend his PhD work at the University of Bergen:
Spatial variations in child undernutrition in Ethiopia: Implications for intervention strategies
Background: Ethiopia is one of the countries with the highest burden of undernutrition, with rates of stunting and underweight as high as 40% and 25%, respectively. National efforts are underway for an accelerated reduction of undernutrition by the year 2030. However, for this to occur, understanding the spatial variations in the distribution of undernutrition on a varying geographic scale, and its determinants will contribute a quite a bit to enhance planning and implementing nutrition intervention programmes.
Objectives: The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the large- and small-scale spatial variations in the distribution of undernutrition indicators, the underlying processes and the factors responsible for the observed spatial variations.
Methods: We used nationally available climate and undernutrition data to evaluate the macro-scale spatial pattern of undernutrition and its determinants. We applied a panel study design, and evaluated the effect of growing seasonal rainfall and temperature variability on the macro-scale spatial variations (Paper I). We conducted a repeated cross- sectional survey to assess the performance of the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) developed internationally to measure household food insecurity. The results from this validation work were used to modify the HFIAS items for subsequent papers (Papers III and IV). We conducted a census on six randomly selected kebeles to evaluate the spatial patterns of undernutrition on a smaller scale (Paper III). For Paper IV, we conducted a cross-sectional survey on a representative sample, and employed a Bayesian geo-statistical model to help identify the risk factors for stunting, thereby accounting for the spatial structure (spatial dependency) of the data.
Results: In Paper I, we demonstrated spatial variations in the distribution of stunting across administrative zones in the country, which could be explained in part by rainfall. However, the models poorly explained the variation in stunting within an administrative zone during the study period. We indicated that a single model for all agro-ecologic zones may not be appropriate. In Paper II, we showed that the internal consistency of the HFIAS’ tools, as measured by Cronbach’s alpha, was adequate. We observed a lack of reproducibility in HFIAS score among rural households. Therefore, we modified the HFAIS tool, and used it for subsequent surveys in this thesis (Papers III and IV). In Paper III, spatial clustering on a smaller scale (within a kebele) was found for wasting and severe wasting. Spatial clustering on a higher scale (inter-kebele) was found for stunting and severe stunting. Children found within the identified cluster were 1.5 times more at risk of stunting, and nearly five times more at risk of wasting, than children residing outside this cluster. In Paper IV, we found a significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of stunting in the district. Using both the local Anselin Moran’s I (LISA) and the scan statistics, we identified statistically significant clusters of high value (hotspots) and a most likely significant cluster for stunting in the eastern part of the district. We found that the risk of stunting was higher among boys, children whose mother or guardian had no education and children who lived in a food-insecure household. We showed that including a spatial component (spatial structure of the data) into the Bayesian model improved the model fit compared with the model without this spatial component.
Conclusion: We demonstrated that stunting and wasting exhibited a spatial heterogeneity, both on a large and small scale, rather than being distributed randomly. We demonstrated that there is a tendency for undernourished cases (stunting and wasting) to occur near each other than to occur homogeneously. We demonstrated a micro-level spatial variation in risk and vulnerability to undernutrition in a district with a high burden of undernutrition. Identifying such areas where a population at risk lives is central in assisting a geographical targeting of intervention. We recommend further study, possibly using a trial design or implementation research approach, to help evaluate the feasibility and benefits of geographically targeting nutritional interventions.
The thesis can be downloaded here.